Model Thinking
от партнера
Model Thinking
University of Michigan
Об этом курсе
4.8
1,127 ratings
We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians.
The models covered in this class provide a foundation for future social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I present a short, easily digestible overview lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a Course Certificate. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!
Приобретаемые навыки
ModelingEconomicsDecision-MakingStrategic Thinking
Программа курса: что вы изучите
1
Раздел
Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects
In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller.
12 видео (всего 124 мин.), 6 материалов для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
12 видео
Why Model?8мин
Intelligent Citizens of the World11мин
Thinking More Clearly10мин
Using and Understanding Data10мин
Using Models to Decide, Strategize, and Design15мин
Sorting and Peer Effects Introduction5мин
Schelling's Segregation Model11мин
Measuring Segregation11мин
Peer Effects6мин
The Standing Ovation Model18мин
The Identification Problem10мин
6 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Welcome10мин
Grading Policy10мин
Course FAQ10мин
Syllabus10мин
Help us learn more about you!10мин
Segregation and Peer Effects10мин
1 практическое упражнение
Why Model? & Segregation and Peer Effects12мин
2
Раздел
Aggregation & Decision Models
In this section, we explore the mysteries of aggregation, i.e. adding things up. We start by considering how numbers aggregate, focusing on the Central Limit Theorem. We then turn to adding up rules. We consider the Game of Life and one dimensional cellular automata models. Both models show how simple rules can combine to produce interesting phenomena. Last, we consider aggregating preferences. Here we see how individual preferences can be rational, but the aggregates need not be.There exist many great places on the web to read more about the Central Limit Theorem, the Binomial Distribution, Six Sigma, The Game of Life, and so on. I've included some links to get you started. The readings for cellular automata and for diverse preferences are short excerpts from my books Complex Adaptive Social Systems and The Difference Respectively.
12 видео (всего 138 мин.), 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
12 видео
Aggregation10мин
Central Limit Theorem18мин
Six Sigma5мин
Game of Life14мин
Cellular Automata18мин
Preference Aggregation12мин
Introduction to Decision Making5мин
Multi-Criterion Decision Making8мин
Spatial Choice Models11мин
Probability: The Basics10мин
Decision Trees14мин
Value of Information8мин
1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
Decision Models10мин
1 практическое упражнение
Aggregation & Decision Models16мин
3
Раздел
Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models
In this section, we study various ways that social scientists model people. We study and contrast three different models. The rational actor approach, behavioral models, and rule based models . These lectures provide context for many of the models that follow. There's no specific reading for these lectures though I mention several books on behavioral economics that you may want to consider. Also, if you find the race to the bottom game interesting just type "Rosemary Nagel Race to the Bottom" into a search engine and you'll get several good links. You can also find good introductions to "Zero Intelligence Traders" by typing that in as well.
12 видео (всего 130 мин.), 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
12 видео
Rational Actor Models16мин
Behavioral Models12мин
Rule Based Models12мин
When Does Behavior Matter?12мин
Introduction to Linear Models4мин
Categorical Models15мин
Linear Models8мин
Fitting Lines to Data11мин
Reading Regression Output11мин
From Linear to Nonlinear6мин
The Big Coefficient vs The New Reality11мин
1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
Categorical and Linear Models10мин
1 практическое упражнение
Modules Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models20мин
4
Раздел
Tipping Points & Economic Growth
In this section, we cover tipping points. We focus on two models. A percolation model from physics that we apply to banks and a model of the spread of diseases. The disease model is more complicated so I break that into two parts. The first part focuses on the diffusion. The second part adds recovery. The readings for this section consist of two excerpts from the book I'm writing on models. One covers diffusion. The other covers tips. There is also a technical paper on tipping points that I've included in a link. I wrote it with PJ Lamberson and it will be published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. I've included this to provide you a glimpse of what technical social science papers look like. You don't need to read it in full, but I strongly recommend the introduction. It also contains a wonderful reference list.
13 видео (всего 132 мин.), 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
13 видео
Tipping Points5мин
Percolation Models11мин
Contagion Models 1: Diffusion7мин
Contagion Models 2: SIS Model9мин
Classifying Tipping Points8мин
Measuring Tips13мин
Introduction To Growth6мин
Exponential Growth10мин
Basic Growth Model13мин
Solow Growth Model11мин
Will China Continue to Grow?11мин
Why Do Some Countries Not Grow?11мин
Piketty's Capital: The Power of Simple Model8мин
1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
Economic Growth10мин
1 практическое упражнение
Modules Tipping Points & Economic Growth18мин
4.8
10%
83%
Лучшие рецензии
автор: GK•Feb 25th 2017
Great content and lectures, that possibly provides new dimensions to look/explain the situation in context, I guess I will comeback for references to continue with this journey in to 'Model Thinking'
автор: AT•Jun 7th 2016
Wonderful course and equally wonderful instructor. I really like how Scott builds up from a very simple model and by explaining the intuition behind how we got the math, explains the maths.
Преподаватель
Scott E. Page
Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and EconomicsCenter for the Study of Complex Systems
О University of Michigan
The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future.
Часто задаваемые вопросы
When will I have access to the lectures and assignments?
Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.
What will I get if I purchase the Certificate?
When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.
What is the refund policy?
Is financial aid available?
Остались вопросы? Посетите Центр поддержки учащихся.
Coursera делает лучшее в мире образование доступным каждому, предлагая онлайн-курсы от ведущих университетов и организаций.
© Coursera Inc., 2018 Все права защищены.
