Об этом курсе
4.7
259 ratings
61 reviews
Most professions these days require more than general intelligence. They require in addition the ability to collect, analyze and think about data. Personal life is enriched when these same skills are applied to problems in everyday life involving judgment and choice. This course presents basic concepts from statistics, probability, scientific methodology, cognitive psychology and cost-benefit theory and shows how they can be applied to everything from picking one product over another to critiquing media accounts of scientific research. Concepts are defined briefly and breezily and then applied to many examples drawn from business, the media and everyday life. What kinds of things will you learn? Why it’s usually a mistake to interview people for a job. Why it’s highly unlikely that, if your first meal in a new restaurant is excellent, you will find the next meal to be as good. Why economists regularly walk out of movies and leave restaurant food uneaten. Why getting your picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated usually means your next season is going to be a disappointment. Why you might not have a disease even though you’ve tested positive for it. Why you’re never going to know how coffee affects you unless you conduct an experiment in which you flip a coin to determine whether you will have coffee on a given day. Why it might be a mistake to use an office in a building you own as opposed to having your office in someone else’s building. Why you should never keep a stock that’s going down in hopes that it will go back up and prevent you from losing any of your initial investment. Why it is that a great deal of health information presented in the media is misinformation....
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Начните сейчас и учитесь по собственному графику.
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Beginner Level

Начальный уровень

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Предполагаемая нагрузка: 4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week

Прибл. 10 ч. на завершение
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English

Субтитры: English, Ukrainian

Приобретаемые навыки

Sunk CostsCost–Benefit AnalysisCognitive BiasDecision-MakingData AnalysisStatistical Inference
Globe

Только онлайн-курсы

Начните сейчас и учитесь по собственному графику.
Calendar

Гибкие сроки

Назначьте сроки сдачи в соответствии со своим графиком.
Beginner Level

Начальный уровень

Clock

Предполагаемая нагрузка: 4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week

Прибл. 10 ч. на завершение
Comment Dots

English

Субтитры: English, Ukrainian

Программа курса: что вы изучите

1

Раздел
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Introduction

Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning....
Reading
1 видео (всего 15 мин.), 3 материалов для самостоятельного изучения
Video1 видео
Reading3 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett10мин
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Help us learn more about you!10мин
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 1: Statistics

Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems....
Reading
2 видео (всего 29 мин.), 2 материалов для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
Video2 видео
Introduction to Correlation16мин
Reading2 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Interactive Activity10мин
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz1 практическое упражнение
Lesson 1 Quiz18мин
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers

How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants. ...
Reading
2 видео (всего 27 мин.), 2 материалов для самостоятельного изучения, 4 тестов
Video2 видео
The Law of Large Numbers: Part 215мин
Reading2 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Interactive Activity10мин
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz4 практического упражнения
Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt5мин
Pre-lecture Quiz5мин
Lesson 2 Quiz12мин
Post-lecture Reflection Prompt5мин

2

Раздел
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 3: Correlation

It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error....
Reading
4 видео (всего 25 мин.), 3 материалов для самостоятельного изучения, 2 тестов
Video4 видео
The Draw-a-Person Test4мин
Illusory Correlation6мин
Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance9мин
Reading3 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Pre-lecture Activity10мин
Interactive Activity10мин
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz2 практического упражнения
Correlation Exercises10мин
Lesson 3 Quiz10мин
Clock
2 ч. на завершение

Lesson 4: Experiments

You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments....
Reading
3 видео (всего 42 мин.), 2 материалов для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
Video3 видео
A/B Testing9мин
Experimental Design and Natural Experiments17мин
Reading2 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Pre-lecture Activity5мин
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz1 практическое упражнение
Lesson 4 Quiz26мин

3

Раздел
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 5: Prediction

You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events....
Reading
2 видео (всего 40 мин.), 2 материалов для самостоятельного изучения, 1 тест
Video2 видео
Base Rate22мин
Reading2 материала для самостоятельного изучения
Pre-lecture Question5мин
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz1 практическое упражнение
Lesson 5 Quiz8мин
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases

We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind....
Reading
3 видео (всего 36 мин.), 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения, 2 тестов
Video3 видео
Heuristics11мин
Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias11мин
Reading1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz2 практического упражнения
Pre-lecture Quiz5мин
Lesson 6 Quiz22мин

4

Раздел
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding

How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire....
Reading
3 видео (всего 38 мин.), 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения, 2 тестов
Video3 видео
Sunk Costs10мин
Loss Aversion12мин
Reading1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz2 практического упражнения
Pre-lecture Activity5мин
Lesson 7 Quiz14мин
Clock
1 ч. на завершение

Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning

The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems....
Reading
2 видео (всего 36 мин.), 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения, 2 тестов
Video2 видео
Dialectical Reasoning16мин
Reading1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Quiz2 практического упражнения
Pre-lecture Quiz8мин
Lesson 8 Quiz20мин
Clock
16 минуты на завершение

Conclusion

...
Reading
1 видео (всего 6 мин.), 2 материалов для самостоятельного изучения
Video1 видео
Reading2 материала для самостоятельного изучения
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware bookмин
Post-course Survey10мин
4.7

Лучшие рецензии

автор: NPAug 7th 2017

A very good course prof Richard has explained very difficult to understand concepts in a very simple language and made it easy for students to grasp the subject matter easily.

автор: SNMay 27th 2017

Excellent! A very informative course delivered in a very effective manner. I would highly recommend this course to all who have any interest at all in critical thinking.

Преподаватель

Richard E. Nisbett

Theodore M. Newcomb Distinguished University Professor
Department of Psychology

О University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

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  • Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.

  • When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.

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