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Math behind Moneyball

ОбзорПрограмма курсаЧасто задаваемые вопросыАвторыСтоимостьРейтинги и отзывы

ГлавнаяНаука о данныхАнализ данных

Math behind Moneyball

University of Houston System

Об этом курсе: Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

Автор:  University of Houston System
University of Houston System
  • Professor Wayne Winston

    Преподаватели:  Professor Wayne Winston, Visiting Professor

    Bauer College of Business
УровеньНачинающий
Язык
Английский
Как пройти курсЧтобы пройти курс, выполните все оцениваемые задания.
Оценки пользователей
4.5 звезды
Средняя оценка пользователей: 4.5Посмотрите, что пишут учащиеся
Программа курса
НЕДЕЛЯ 1
Before you start...
Stacked File
1 видео, 1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Видео: All you will learn
  2. Reading: Suggested Textbooks (Not Required)
Module 1
You will learn how to predict a team’s won loss record from the number of runs, points, or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multiple regression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseball hitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will be discussed.
Stacked File
11 видео, 22 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Видео: 1.1 Introduction
  3. Reading: Excel Files
  4. Reading: Recommended reading
  5. Видео: 1.2 Pythagorean Theorem
  6. Reading: Excel file
  7. Reading: Recommended reading
  8. Видео: 1.3 Ten runs = One win
  9. Видео: Homework Problems 1 and 2
  10. Reading: Excel file
  11. Reading: Excel file
  12. Reading: Recommended reading
  13. Видео: 1.4 Runs created
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Reading: Recommended reading
  16. Видео: 1.5 Runs Created Per Game
  17. Reading: Homework Problem 3
  18. Reading: Excel Files
  19. Reading: Recommended reading
  20. Видео: 1.6 Multiple Regression 1
  21. Reading: Excel Files
  22. Reading: Recommended reading
  23. Видео: 1.7 Multiple Regression 2
  24. Reading: Excel Files
  25. Reading: Recommended reading
  26. Видео: 1.8 Linear Weights
  27. Reading: Excel Files
  28. Reading: Recommended reading
  29. Видео: 1.9 On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage
  30. Reading: Excel Files
  31. Reading: Recommended reading
  32. Видео: 1.10 Barry Bonds Runs per Game
  33. Reading: Homework Problems 4
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Questions 1 and 2
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 3
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 4
НЕДЕЛЯ 2
Module 2
You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions. You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.
Stacked File
10 видео, 23 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 2.1 Excel Range Names
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Reading: Recommended Reading
  7. Видео: 2.2 Excel Tables
  8. Reading: Excel Files
  9. Reading: Recommended Reading
  10. Видео: 2.3 Conditional Formatting: Top Bottom Rules
  11. Reading: Excel Files
  12. Reading: Recommended Reading
  13. Видео: 2.4 Conditional Formatting: Data Bars
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Reading: Recommended Reading
  16. Видео: 2.5 Conditional Formatting: The Formula Option
  17. Reading: Excel Files
  18. Reading: Recommended Reading
  19. Видео: 2.6 COUNTIF and COUNTIFS functions
  20. Reading: Excel Files
  21. Reading: Recommended Reading
  22. Видео: 2.7 SUMIF and SUMIFS Functions
  23. Reading: Excel Files
  24. Reading: Recommended Reading
  25. Видео: 2.8 AVERAGEIF and AVERAGEIFS Functions
  26. Reading: Homework Problem 5
  27. Reading: Excel Files
  28. Reading: Recommended Reading
  29. Видео: 2.9 PivotTables I
  30. Reading: Excel Files
  31. Reading: Recommended Reading
  32. Видео: 2.10 PivotTables II
  33. Reading: Homework Problem 6
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 5
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 6
НЕДЕЛЯ 3
Module 3
You will learn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate a baseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.
Stacked File
6 видео, 10 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation I
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Видео: 3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Part II
  7. Reading: Excel Files
  8. Видео: 3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation Part III
  9. Reading: Excel Files
  10. Видео: 3.4 Baseball Monte Carlo simulation
  11. Reading: Excel Files
  12. Reading: Recommended Reading
  13. Видео: 3.5 Resampling
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Видео: 3.6 Deflategate
  16. Reading: Homework Problem 8
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 7
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 8
НЕДЕЛЯ 4
Module 4
You will learn how to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers, and evaluate in game baseball decision-making. The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also be discussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing will also be discussed.
Stacked File
13 видео, 27 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 4.1 Bunting and Expected Runs
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Reading: Recommended reading
  7. Видео: 4.2 Base Stealing
  8. Reading: Homework Problem 9
  9. Reading: Excel Files
  10. Reading: Recommended Reading
  11. Видео: 4.3 Range Factor
  12. Reading: Excel Files
  13. Видео: 4.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and Fielding
  14. Reading: Homework Problem 10
  15. Reading: Homework Problem 11
  16. Видео: 4.5 Introduction to Fan Graphs
  17. Reading: Excel Files
  18. Reading: Recommended Reading
  19. Видео: 4.6 DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)
  20. Reading: Homework Problem 12
  21. Reading: Excel Files
  22. Reading: Recommended Reading
  23. Видео: 4.7 Win Probability Added
  24. Reading: Excel Files
  25. Reading: Recommended Reading
  26. Видео: 4.8 Runs above Average
  27. Reading: Excel Files
  28. Reading: Recommended Reading
  29. Видео: 4.9 WAR (Wins above Replacement)
  30. Reading: Homework Problem 13
  31. Reading: Excel Files
  32. Видео: 4.10 What Makes your Team Win?
  33. Reading: Excel Files
  34. Видео: 4.11 Defensive Shifts
  35. Reading: Excel Files
  36. Видео: 4.12 Catcher Framing
  37. Reading: Excel Files
  38. Reading: Recommended Reading
  39. Видео: 4.13 Park Factors
  40. Reading: Homework Problem 14
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 9
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Questions 10&11
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 12
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 13
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 14
НЕДЕЛЯ 5
Module 5
You will learn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal random variable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regression can be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB rating system. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth. Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Points per play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.
Stacked File
11 видео, 23 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 5.1 Random Variables
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Reading: Recommended Reading
  7. Видео: 5.2 The Normal Random Variable
  8. Reading: Excel Files
  9. Reading: Recommended Reading
  10. Видео: 5.3 Streakiness
  11. Reading: Excel Files
  12. Видео: 5.4 What makes NFL teams win?
  13. Reading: Homework Problem 15
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Видео: 5.5 Deconstructing the NFL QB rating
  16. Reading: Homework Problem 16
  17. Reading: Excel Files
  18. Reading: Recommended Reading
  19. Видео: 5.6 Football States and Values
  20. Reading: Excel Files
  21. Reading: Recommended Reading
  22. Видео: 5.7 Football Decision Making
  23. Reading: Homework Problem 17
  24. Reading: Excel Files
  25. Видео: 5.8 The Belichick Decision
  26. Reading: Homework Problem 18
  27. Reading: Excel Files
  28. Reading: Recommended Reading
  29. Видео: 5.9 Text functions and Analyzing NFL plays
  30. Reading: Excel Files
  31. Видео: 5.10 Texans 1st and 10 Play Selection
  32. Reading: Excel Files
  33. Видео: 5.11 STDEVIF and Too Many Field Goal Attempts
  34. Reading: Homework Problem 19
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 15
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 16
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 17
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 18
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 19
НЕДЕЛЯ 6
Module 6
You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.
Stacked File
7 видео, 16 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 6.1 Game Theory Part I
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Видео: 6.2 Game Theory Part II
  7. Reading: Homework Problem 20
  8. Reading: Excel Files
  9. Видео: 6.3 Basketball Shot Selection
  10. Reading: Excel Files
  11. Reading: Recommended Reading
  12. Видео: 6.4 Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG)
  13. Reading: Homework Problem 21
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Видео: 6.5 Hollinger Team Metrics
  16. Reading: Excel Files
  17. Reading: Recommended Reading
  18. Видео: 6.6 Four Factors
  19. Reading: Homework Problem 22
  20. Reading: Excel Files
  21. Reading: Recommended Reading
  22. Видео: 6.7 Basketball Box Score Models
  23. Reading: Homework Problem 23
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 20
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 21
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 22
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test Question 23
НЕДЕЛЯ 7
Module 7
You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.
Stacked File
8 видео, 13 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Видео: 7.1 Extracting Lineup data and Computing raw + -
  4. Reading: Excel Files
  5. Видео: 7.2 Computing Pairs Lineup Statistics
  6. Reading: Excel Files
  7. Видео: 7.3 Adjusted + -
  8. Reading: Homework Problem 24
  9. Reading: Excel Files
  10. Видео: 7.4 ESPM RPM (Real Plus Minus)
  11. Reading: Homework Problem 25
  12. Reading: Excel Files
  13. Видео: 7.5 How Analytics Helped the Mavs beat the Heat
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Видео: 7.6 SportsVu data
  16. Reading: Homework Problem 26
  17. Reading: Excel Files
  18. Видео: 7.7 In Game Basketball Decision-Making
  19. Reading: Excel Files
  20. Видео: 7.8 Hack a Jordan (or Dwight)
  21. Reading: Homework Problem 27
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 24
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 25
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 26
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 27
НЕДЕЛЯ 8
Module 8
You will learn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulation of the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016 bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!
Stacked File
7 видео, 18 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 8.1 Rating NFL teams
  5. Reading: Homework Problem 28
  6. Reading: Excel Files
  7. Reading: Recommended Reading
  8. Видео: 8.2 Computing Strength of Schedule
  9. Reading: Homework Problem 29
  10. Reading: Excel Files
  11. Reading: Recommended Reading
  12. Видео: 8.3 Rating NFL Offenses and Defenses
  13. Reading: Homework Problem 30
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Reading: Recommended Reading
  16. Видео: 8.4 Multiplicative Rating Models for Soccer
  17. Reading: Homework Problem 31
  18. Reading: Excel Files
  19. Видео: 8.5 Regularization
  20. Reading: Excel Files
  21. Reading: Recommended Reading
  22. Видео: 8.6 Simulating the NCAA Tournament
  23. Reading: Excel Files
  24. Видео: 8.7 NCAA Props Bets
  25. Reading: Homework Problem 32
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 28
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 29
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 30
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 31
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 32
НЕДЕЛЯ 9
Module 9
You will learn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports betting concepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling betting systems.
Stacked File
10 видео, 19 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 9.1 Method of Maximum Likelihood
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Reading: Recommended Reading
  7. Видео: 9.2 Rating Teams Based on Wins and Losses
  8. Reading: Homework Problem 33
  9. Reading: Excel Files
  10. Видео: 9.3 Simulating the NFL Playoffs
  11. Reading: Excel Files
  12. Видео: 9.4 Rating NASCAR Drivers
  13. Reading: Excel Files
  14. Видео: 9.5 How Good are NFL Point Spreads
  15. Reading: Excel Files
  16. Видео: 9.6 Relating the Money Line to Point Spreads
  17. Reading: Recommended Reading
  18. Reading: Homework Problem 34
  19. Reading: Excel Files
  20. Видео: 9.7 How Can you tell if a Betting System is Successful?
  21. Reading: Homework Problem 35
  22. Reading: Excel Files
  23. Reading: Recommended Reading
  24. Видео: 9.8 Props Bets I
  25. Reading: Excel Files
  26. Видео: 9.9 Props Bet II
  27. Reading: Excel Files
  28. Видео: 9.10 Props Bet III
  29. Reading: Homework Problem 36
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 33
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 34
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 35
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 36
НЕДЕЛЯ 10
Module 10
You will learn how Kelly Growth can optimize your sports betting, how regression to the mean explains the SI cover jinx and how to optimize a daily fantasy sports lineup. We close with a discussion of golf analytics.
Stacked File
7 видео, 14 материала для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files (Important!)
  2. Reading: Excel Files
  3. Reading: Recommended Reading
  4. Видео: 10.1 Kelly Growth Part I
  5. Reading: Excel Files
  6. Видео: 10.2 Kelly Growth Part II
  7. Reading: Excel Files
  8. Видео: 10.3 Kelly Growth Part III
  9. Reading: Homework Problem 37
  10. Reading: Excel Files
  11. Reading: Recommended Reading
  12. Видео: 10.4 Regression to the Mean
  13. Reading: Homework Problem 38
  14. Reading: Excel Files
  15. Видео: 10.5 Daily Fantasy Sports Part I
  16. Reading: Excel Files
  17. Видео: 10.6 Daily Fantasy Sports Part II
  18. Reading: Homework Problem 39
  19. Reading: Excel Files
  20. Видео: 10.7 Golf Analytics
  21. Reading: Homework Problem 40
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 37
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 38
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 39
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Test 40
НЕДЕЛЯ 11
Final Exam
Final exam has 10 questions. Please download and open Excel files before taking the exam. You will be referred to Excel files during the exam. Each question is wort 1 point. You need to answer 6 questions or more correctly to pass the exam.
Stacked File
1 материал для самостоятельного изучения
  1. Reading: Download Excel Files
Graded AssignmentОцениваемый: Final Exam

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Авторы
University of Houston System
The University of Houston System’s four universities and six regional campuses comprise the only comprehensive higher education system serving the world’s energy capital and the Gulf Coast region. Among institutions nationwide, the UH System remains a model of diversity and a reflection of the city it serves.
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Рейтинги и отзывы
Оценка 4.5 из 5 по 38 отзывам
Javier Ochoa

Excellent course if you like statistics, probabilities, and how to linh sport with math. Well explained. Maybe it needs more "movement" on forums

Michael Sweet

This is one of the very the best classes I've ever taken. It provided the tools in Excel and the methods to model various sports outcomes so that I can start creating my own models. The examples were wide ranging and interesting. I thoroughly enjoyed listening to Professor Winston and appreciated all the additional references he pointed out during the lectures. I would love to see a second course in sports analytics . I do wish this course was called "Introduction to Sports Analytics", or "Sports Analytics I" so it would be easier to find. It seems like this course should have many more reviews than it does. Also, some of the course data may need updated. Highly recommended to anyone interested in sportsbetting or fantasy sports.

SP

Great course, however very heavy emphasis on Baseball and NFL. Resultantly some of the assessment questions proved impossible given the knowledge needed about the sport.

B

Wow, this is quite the crash course in sports analytics and Excel tricks! I was familiar with most of the concepts, but enjoyed seeing how easily all of these advanced stats could be calculated, and learned some really useful Excel functionality (what-if analysis, solver). The amount of material that is covered is really impressive!

Biggest problem with this course: it doesn't turn up when you search for "sports analytics" in Coursera's search - luckily for me mooclist.com knows about it



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