了解如何提升工作效率和提高质量标准，学会分析和改善服务业或制造业商务流程。主要概念包括流程分析、瓶颈、流程速率和库存量等。成功完成本课程后，您可以运用所学技能处理现实商务挑战，这也是沃顿商学院商务基础专项课程的组成部分。
第 2 单元班次 6 视频课程
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Из курса от партнера University of Pennsylvania
运营管理概论（中文版）
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第 2 单元 - 流程分析
您将在本模块中学习如何找到过程分析的关键因素：流速（flow rate）和流程时间（flow time）；如何找到瓶颈；如何优化劳力和库存；如何处理有多个流动单元的复杂情况。本模块教学结束后，您将能将运营分解为了流程，然后改进流程使利润和效率最大化。
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Christian TerwieschAndrew M. Heller Professor at the Wharton School, Senior Fellow Leonard Davis Institute for Health Economics Co-Director, Mack Institute of Innovation Management
The Wharton School
In an earlier session, we saw the drivers of flow rate.
We learned that the flow rate was driven by the minimum of demand in capacity,
where capacity, in turn, was driven by the bottleneck of the process.
In this session, we'll discuss the drivers of inventory.
Why should there be inventory in the process?
When we all want to be lean and live without inventory.
We'll discuss a couple of reasons why firms might hold inventory.
We will see that variability, in particular, is going to be a big driver
why firms hold so much inventory. Now, keep in mind as we're doing this,
that everything that explains inventory will implicitly also explain the flow
time. You know, by Little's Law, holding the
flow rate constant, everything that we do to inventory, we will do to flow time.
So, while we call the session, 5 reasons for inventory, we can really also
call it 5 reasons for longer flow time. In our calculations for the Subway case,
we assumed that workers would work like robots.
It would take, for example, a work exactly 9 seconds per customer to put the
cheese on the sandwich. We will stick with this assumption for a
little longer, but at this time, I want you to understand the implications of
assuming that these processing times have absolutely no variability associated with
them. Imagine you're working in a food truck.
Say for sake of argument, that at any time slot of 5 minutes duration, you can
predict between 0, 1 or 2 orders with equal probability.
You also have a capacity of 0, 1 or 2 orders.
Now, it's also not possible to make a sandwich before the order's occurring, and
customers are not willing to wait for the sandwich.
How many sandwiches will you sell every five minutes?
Well, previously, we defined the flow rate as the minimum between demand and
capacity. In this case, since we have an average
demand of one, and an average capacity of one, a naive analysis would suggest that
our average flow rate is one. However, this example is misleading.
Let's look at all the things that can happen at the food truck.
We can have a demand that is either 0, 1 or 2.
We can also have a capacity that is 0, 1 or 2.
That leads to 9 cases. If we have, by the amount of 0 and the
capacity of 0, well, obviously, the flow rate is 0.
The flow rate is also 0 for a capacity of 1 or 2, as long as the demand is
zero. Remember, the flow rate is a minimum of
demand and capacity. So, I apply the same calculations, the
minimum between demand and capacity to these 9 rows here.
I noticed that the average flow rate is much lower than I initially expected.
Remember, each of these rows here are occurring with the same probability, and I
see that the average flow rate that I obtained this way is just 5 over 9.
But differently, I've lost almost half of my flow rate just because of the effect of
variability. Now, people refer to this effect as buffer
or suffer. Buffer or suffer means, that in a system
that is not able to buffer the variability, we will suffer a loss of flow
rate. Remember, our crucial assumption here, it
is not able, the food truck is not able to make a sandwich before the order occurs
and customers are not willing to wait for it.
So, we explicitly eliminate inventory, both inventories of waiting customers and
inventories of waiting sandwiches. By allowing for inventories, we'll
actually be able to have a higher flow rate.
If we allow the food truck to make a sandwich to inventory in the situation
where the demand is zero, or vice versa if we allow the food truck to inventory to
buffer some customers when the demand is high, the flow rate will go up.
So, in other words, inventory helps us with the flow rate by decoupling the
supply and demand. This is one of the reasons why companies
like to have inventory. Buffer or suffer.
There is no right answer to this simple question.
We notice this by comparing the two biggest restaurant chains in the world,
Subway and McDonald's. At Subway, as we've already discussed,
customers wait for their sandwiches to be made because the sandwiches are made to
the customer order. The customer orders a sandwich and then
stands there in line, potentially waiting with other customers, until their specific
sandwich uniquely made for them is completed.
Mcdonald's follows a different strategy. At McDonald's, the restaurant makes a
whole batch of sandwiches. They don't make just one cheeseburger,
They just do twenty in a row. Then, the sandwiches will wait for the
customer orders. So, instead of the customer waiting for
the sandwich, at McDonald's, you have the sandwich waiting for the customers.
The benefit of that is when the customer order finally comes in, you don't have to
make the sandwich, you can fulfill it immediately.
So, instead of having the customer wait for the sandwiches, the sandwich waits for
the customer. We would call the McDonald's approach,
make to stock or make to inventory. The main advantage of make to stock, is
that it allows to scale economies in production.
You're going to produce twenty hamburgers in a row.
The second advantage of it, is, it also allows for short flow time for the
customer order. Now notice, that you have a longer flow
time for the hamburger, but a short flow time for the customer order.
In the Subway setting, the benefits of make to order are that you can make the
sandwiches fresh. The flow time for the sandwich are short,
which comes at the expense of the waiting time for the customer.
It also allows for more customization. It would be impractical to hold all
potential versions of a Subway sandwich in inventory.
By making the sandwiches to order, you can allow the customer to choose whether they
want extra mayonnaise or no onions on their sandwich.
The final benefit of make to order is that you're producing in exactly the quantity
of demand. We'll revisit the question make to order
make to stock when we talk about customer choice.
Because make to order allows you, as we discussed, to dramatically increase the
level of customization in the production. Do inventory cost us money to store as
we've seen in the calculations with inventory turns?
The examples of McDonald's have shown us that management might sometimes be
well-advised to hold the inventory. Let me propose five reasons why management
might want to hold inventory in the process.
There might be other reasons, but I think these are the most important ones.
The first reason for inventory is what I call pipeline inventory.
Pipeline inventory is a direct result of Little's Law.
I = R T. If you're producing wine, and that wine
needs to age for 2 years before you sell it, well, you need to hold 2 years of
wine sales in the inventory. The second reason for inventory is called
seasonal inventory. Imagine you're a toy manufacturer, and 90
percent of your sales are happening around Christmas.
With that in mind, given that you want to produce at a relatively steady pace all
over the year, very likely in October and November, at the latest you're building up
very significant inventory. The third reason for inventory is called
cycle inventory. Often times, as we already saw in the
McDonald's example, economies of scale and the production of purchasing.
Just think about how in your household you're purchasing beer, wine, milk, orange
juice or whatever your favorite beverage is.
You might be drinking a bottle of beer a day.
However, it's unlikely that you are going to run to the beer store for every
individual bottle. You are buying a case and then other
bottles sit there in inventory. We've already seen the McDonald's examples
a case of safety inventory. Mcdonald's doesn't want to run out of
hamburgers to, to sell. And so they are producing the burgers
ahead of demand. They also keep a little bit of safety stock
just to make sure that their customers don't have to wait for the food.
Finally, the last reason for inventory is in decoupling inventory.
Instead of just buffering us to external demand from the customers, we might also
want to buffer us from internal demand from other process steps in the operation.
So, the last two examples here are really driven by the variability in the spirit of
buffer or suffer. The previous two are driven really by
variations in the supply rate to match a seasonal demand, enter the corresponded
pipeline inventory is just the minimum inventory any operation needs to exist.
Buffer or suffer. Inventory can be used to shield us from
the variability of demand. Inventory can also be used to shield us
from the internal variability be it in the form of set up times or the
variability in processing times. For this reason, inventory is really a
very powerful symptom that guides you in improving your processing.
Wherever you see inventory, you will have the supply and demand mismatches and those
tend to be the biggest opportunities for process improvement.
In this session, we also talked about the difference between make to order, and make to stock.
If following the make to stock model, the
firm holds inventory even if it has not yet seen the demand.
This allows the operations to look faster about to, to the customer.
Remember, the customer doesn't want to wait.
The operation looks fast to the customer, even though internally, it might actually be very slow.
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