Welcome to this online class on analyzing global trends for business and society. I'm Mauro Guillen and I'm a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. I'm going to tell you in a moment what this class is about. And also to share with you some thoughts about what's different in the world today when compared to 10, 30, or even 50 years ago. And of course, I would like to share with you my analysis as to where the world of economics, the world of politics and global society is going over the next few years. In this class, we're going to be analyzing global trends and their effects on population, consumer markets, labor markets, financial markets, politics, geopolitics, natural resources, and also global relationships among countries in the world. I told you earlier that I teach at the Wharton School. I'm also the director of the Lauder Institute of Management & International Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. I have an accent, I'm originally from Spain. And I have a passion, which is analyzing global trends. I've written ten book and myriad articles on various aspects of globalization. Now in this class, we're going to be analyzing global trends. But when I say that a trend is global, in no way I am implying that the trend affects every region, every country or every industry in the world in exactly the same way. In other words, what I'm trying to say is our global trends are tornadoes. They're not tsunamis. They don't change everything in their wake throughout the world. The same global trend can have a very positive effect on one part of the world or one industry. And at the same time, that very same trend can have a very negative impact on another country or another region in the world or another industry. Trends, are also phenomena that may be producing both challenges and opportunities. There is a lot of uncertainty as to exactly how all of these global trends that we're going to be analyzing in this class will unfold in the future. Therefore, I think it is very important to keep in mind that one of the key characteristics of the 21st century will be uncertainty. In fact, some people talk about uncertainty as the new normal. What I would like you to do as we analyze different global trends, is to think about what is it that companies, what is it that governments, what is it that individuals like yourselves need to do in response to those trends. At the very least perhaps, you will think about new products or new programs or new types of services that perhaps should be offered. I would also like you to think about how business models should change? How the way in which government agencies or the ways in which governments think about policy-making should change as a result of these global trends? But perhaps you should take one more step. And that would be to think about how you should make decisions. In other words, what is the best way of making decisions as a result of these global trends? And lastly, I would like to challenge you to see if the assumptions that you're making as to how the world works, how markets operate are still valid given the kinds of trends that we're going to be analyzing in this class. So in other words, I would like to invite you to perhaps revisit your mindset. To think twice about the way in which you look at the world, the way in which you analyze what's going on in the world. Let me motivate your interests in this subject by asking you a few questions. And in a moment, I will give you the answers. The first question is, as of today, do more people in the world live in cities or in the countryside? Think about it. A second question. Are there more people suffering from hunger or from obesity in the world? Now a third one. Are there more people with a mobile phone than the number of people who have access to a toilet in the world. A fourth question, are the largest consumer markets, in the US and in Europe, or in China and in India? And the last question for you to think about, is the number of failed states in the world greater or smaller than the number of dictatorships. Well, let me give you the answer to each of these questions. As we speak, there are more people who live in cities than in the countryside. And this has been the case since the year 2009. The second question, here's the answer. There are more people today suffering from obesity in the world than from hunger. And this has been the case since the year 2010. Also, there's more people in the world who have access to a mobile phone, about 6 billion people, when compared to the number of people who have access in the world to a toilet. Because only 4.5 billion people in the world have access to a toilet. The largest markets, consumer markets, in the world are nowadays in Europe and the United States, but within 20 years from today, the biggest consumer markets in the world will be in India and China. And then lastly, there are indeed more failed state than dictatorships since the late 1980s. All of these questions, we will cover in the weeks of class ahead of us. And we will be analyzing, as I told you at the beginning, the impact of all of these global trends on different parts of the world, different industries and different types of markets. What I would like you to learn from this class is a series of concepts and tools so that you can analyze on your own all of these rapidly evolving global trends. I would like you to get a sense as to the direction of those trends and also the intensity of the change in different markets around the world, in global society, and also in global politics. And I would like you to get a sense as to the main risks affecting the world at the present time and into the future. The types of risks that will be affecting businesses, but also societies as a whole.
