7.6 SportsVu data

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Из курса от партнера University of Houston System

Math behind Moneyball

38 оценки

University of Houston System

Math behind Moneyball

38 оценки

Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

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Module 7

You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.

7.6 SportsVu data13:01

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Professor Wayne Winston
Visiting Professor
Bauer College of Business

Okay, in this video we're going to talk about the SportVU data that

you may have heard about.

So I think starting in the 2014-2015 season and

maybe the season before, cameras were placed in every NBA arena.

Before then, there were cameras in several NBA arenas that would keep track of where

the ball is, and where the players are I think 20 times a second.

And this is big data, so what can you do with this data?

It's not available, the data to the general public,

as far as I know, but there is some data

that basically you can look at on NBA.com that is fairly interesting.

And you've probably seen on ESPN and the media people talk about this like

JR Smith recently said I'd rather take a guarded shot than an open shot.

And then, with the SportVU data, people figured out, hey, he shoots a better

percentage when he's guarded on a long jump shot than when he's open.

Crazy, but we know JR is a wild and crazy guy, just like Steve Martin, right?

So now, if you go to NBA.com stats you can see SportVU Player Tracking,

which I'll get to in a few minutes, and SportVU Team Tracking.

So there's a lot of interesting stuff here, and so

there's a bunch of categories.

So if we look at catch and shoot, in other words,

which teams are the best when you catch and shoot the ball.

So, you can look at effective field goal percentage, which we've looked at and

you can sort on that.

The best team, surprisingly, is the Portland Trailblazers on catch and

shoot effective field goal percentage.

That's any jump shot outside of ten feet, where the player had the ball for

two seconds or less and didn't dribble.

I would have thought it would have been the Warriors, but they're right up there.

And the Spurs maybe, but I mean they take a lot of long twos, but

Aldridge is good on long twos.

But Portland is really good at catch and shoot.

Now okay this is only for playoff teams.

So you can filter that with the little gear and I can do regular season.

Run it.

And you can sort on every column here.

And so the best team in catch and shoot in the regular season,

okay this doesn't surprise me, it was the Hawks.

The Hawks, they've moved the ball well, hit a lot of threes.

So, the Hawks and Warriors are in a tie for the two best teams on catch and shoot.

That makes sense to me.

Now I'm not going to go through every category here.

Let's look at drives, again, go regular season.

You can filter on a lot more stuff here, you can add a custom filter.

But let's just go regular season.

So the most points on drives are the 76'ers so

that doesn't necessarily lead to a recipe for success.

Okay, pull up shooting.

So this is the pull up jumper, you take a dribble, you stop and

the guy backs up because he thinks you're driving and you shoot the ball.

This turns out to be a lousy shot, okay?

But you still may need it because it sets up the drive.

I don't really know that much about that.

But if I run the regular season on pull-up jumpers, the best team is 46%,

the Clippers.

Sorry, let's sort on that.

The Warriors are the best on pull-up shooting, 46%.

And a lot of teams are absolutely terrible.

The 76ers are 33% on pull-up jumpers,

the Timberwolves are 38%, and the Knicks are 38%.

And the Lakers are probably down there, 30, no 40%.

So a lot of you know one, two, three, four,

over a third of the NBA shoots less than 40% on pull up jumpers.

And they take a lot of them.

How many per game?

Every NBA team takes between 13 and

26 pull up jumpers a game out of 80 or so

shots, so that's a fairly large percentage.

And there's a lot of other stuff here on team.

We will talk about this with players now, because I have an Excel file.

I downloaded this I guess in March, but of course this is up-to-date.

And let's go to the Excel file.

So what can you do with this data?

Let's see the SportVU data.

So there was a book recently written and I've looked at it, and

I just haven't had time to digest all the ideas.

But I urge you to look at it.

Basketball Analytics.

Spatial Tracking.

By Stephen Shae.

It's 2015.

I don't see the pub, I think it was self published.

And a lot of work has been done by Kirk Goldsberry,

you've probably seen his work on Grantland.

And the Harvard Sports Stats Group.

And they've tried to come up with new defensive metrics.

But I'm not sure I believe in those because they say, for instance,

Mike Dunleavy is the best wing defender in the league.

Now that's really good for Mike and his agent, but I'm not sure that's true.

And we talked about measuring defense on real plus minus and adjusted plus minus,

and I think I have more faith in that, even though it's not looking in detail of

what happens in which possession, I think, in the aggregate, it gets what's going on.

So catch and shoot here, let me split this here.

I highlighted the ten best people on catch and shoot shooting percent and

Kyle Korver, no surprise, because of his great accuracy on threes probably,

shoots 72%, catch and shoot effective field goal.

J.J. Reddick is right up there.

Klay Thompson, this doesn't surprise very many people here.

I mean, Danny Green surprises me a bit.

Anthony Morrow doesn't surprise me.

Courtney Lee surprises me.

Gordon Hayword, no.

DeMarre Carroll's really improved the last few years.

And Marcus Morris, one of the twins in Phoenix and

Kyle Singler are your best on that.

So let's go through a little bit of the other data.

Key offensive stats, these are pretty standard,

steals per game, blocks per game, total blocks.

Opponent shooting percentage at the rim.

So Roy Hibbert, when he's in team shoot 43% at the rim and that's a big

part of his value, since he's not the greatest offensive player in the world.

Andrew Bogut a big key to the Warrior's success and

let's look at Rudy Gobert the Stifle Tower.

You can see where these guys are earning their paychecks.

When Gobert is in for Utah, teams shoot 30% at the rim.

He can almost touch the rim without jumping I think.

Andrew Bogut for the Warriors when he's healthy, he really shuts off the rim.

And I mean, these are things that really, you need people who can do this.

But for instance, Pekovic is really not a good rim protector,

teams shoot 56% at the rim when he's in the game.

Mason Plumlee is not a really good one.

You certainly want somebody, if you average these out,

you would hope you can hold teams under 50% at the rim with a good

rim protector in and the average is 49%.

So you want somebody who's in the low 40s, if you can get that.

Tim Duncan does a good job, so this Noel who's just started out and

Serge Ibaka, we know is a great defender.

I know KC missed him, but this is very interesting.

Now you can look at drives here, points per 48 minutes on drives.

The most points per 48 minutes on drives is Isaiah Thomas,

not formerly of the Pistons, the great Indiana University, we loved him dearly.

But Isaiah Thomas generated the most points for 48 minutes on drives.

Now passes, who throws the most passes per game?

Rondo, that means that's suggested when we tell you that passing is good because

the Mavericks lets put it this way they're not thrilled with how Rondo play through.

I think that's one of the understatements of the year.

He got lots of assists,

threw lots of passes, but it didn't make him a good player for the Mavs.

Now who touched the ball the most?

Now this is interesting.

So Michael Carter Williams on 76ers touched the ball a 100 times a game.

Gosh.

And on the Bucks he got, for the full season, 98 times per game.

Now who generates the most points per half court touch?

In other words, every time the touch the ball in the half court,

this is sort of a measure of efficiency.

Who would generate the most points?

And I think this won't surprise you once you try and guess who it is,

and he's a player who had a very good season this year.

I am sorry, I don't want it there.

So if I split this.

Okay.

Oops wrong, guess we're in the wrong sheet there.

Okay, so we want touches.

So if I would go right here and split it.

Points per half court touched.

Blake Griffin's pretty good.

He's dunking them a lot.

LeBron's good.

James Harden looks to be the best.

Oh no, I guess not quite.

There are some people better.

Pau Gasol's a little bit better, DeMarcus Cousins,

a little bit better, and Kevin Love, when he was in, a little bit better.

Okay, so I was wrong, James Harden was not the best.

But you're not surprised by any of these people who generate, let's say,

over 0.4 points per touch.

That's pretty impressive.

Pull up shots, we've talked about this.

Who's got the best field goal percentage on pull up shots?

It looks like our second guy there, Steph Curry, no surprise there.

Steph Curry's the most amazing shooter I've seen in my lifetime and

I'm older than most of you.

Now, the 55, and Kevin Durant is a great pull up shooter, no surprise there.

Now, rebounds, this is some interesting stuff.

Somehow, they define your chance of getting a rebound if the ball comes

out near you.

So who grabs more of the rebounds, the highest percentage of rebounds,

when they're close by where the ball comes off?

And the answer is DeAndre Jordan, 73%.

Now well, Kawhi Leonard 73% also.

But some guys like Noel need some work.

When he has a chance at the rebound he's only getting 52% of

them compared to DeAndre Jordan.

Of course a lot of rebounding skill is being in the spot where you have a chance

to get it.

And I don't think that, well you could see when we look at how many rebound chances

per game means the guy's in the right spot.

But you can probably do a lot analyzing this.

So then efficiency summarizes sort of all the shooting and

does the expected field goal percentage.

Okay then, speed, who runs the most per 48 minutes?

And my answer to that would be, who cares?

So in other words, if I look at the amount for 48 minutes.

Well, the most anyone runs is 3.6 miles per 48 minutes,

and there just isn't much variation.

And you might use this to measure workload to see if you player, look at the total

distance they traveled during the game and maybe the acceleration.

And then try and figure out if you need the rest because than might be a better

measure of effort that minutes playing.

But I'm really not sure what to do with this.

But I mean really advance stats people like Kirk Goldsberry and his group at

Harvard who have access to really where the ball is on every possession.

And basically, where each player is and how they move around.

Have really been able to do some interesting things with this, but

the general public doesn't have that much data on this.

But I hope you'll explore the SportVU data, and

my guess is every year they'll put more of it on NBA.com.

And we'll get to see more.

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