And the chance of making the field goal is higher let's suppose it's 85%.

So we need the following values.

What's the value of first and ten on the 22?

Because of the kick-off they'll have minus, that's the value to the other team.

They'll get it on the 22.

It's -0.08 to them, 0.08 to us.

Okay now if we don't make the field goal they'll get the ball

seven yards where we attempted it from, they'll get it on 27.

That's worth a positive value to them, a negative to us.

Let's again assume it's worth two on the opponents twenty.

And again, assume yo make it you gain 5 yards.

You fail, oh fail, we should gain one yard.

So gain two yards, we would have made it okay.

So if we make it, we'd have first and 10 on the 85,

because we were 80 yards away from our own goal line.

Now we're 85 away.

That's worth 4.9 points.

If we fail to make it then they'll have first and

ten on their own 19 because we were on the 20.

That's worth -0.298 but negative that is plus.

Okay, so now what's the value to us if we go for it?

The probability we would make it times, we'd have first and ten on the 85.

One minus problem you don't make it and then we would take minus this,

we would take minus the 0.298 it's not that bad of a situation for

us because they're taking over on a bad yard line, so that would be times a plus.

In other words we still got positive value if we don't make it

because they're getting the ball in a bad field position.

Okay, now what's the value of the field goal?

Well the chance of making the field goal, we get three points minus the -0.08 which

makes it a plus, because that's not good field position for them.

Chance of field goal we get 3.08 times the chance of a field goal, and

if we miss the field goal, one minus chance of making the field goal

the value to they get the ball on the 27 which is pretty good for them so

the value for us would be minus 0.267.

So why don't we take the difference between these and equate them.

Let's suppose we say 0.55.

Well that may going for it would be better there okay.

0.45 going for it would be worse.

So somewhere in the middle we want to change the yellow again

to make the red equal zero to see if we should go for this.

So we go What If Analysis > Goal Seek, set sell is going to be.

The difference between expected points going for it or not.

Now this is not win profitability because I mean if I was down two points and

we're 4th and 4 from the 40.

I'd want to kick the field goal.

And in the previous example we're trying to do expected points.

Bryan Berkley we'll see in a couple of videos

has a fourth down calculator that helps us solve this problem.

We want to set the difference to zero, and we want to change the probability.