>> Joining us today is Professor Steven Riley to give us an update on the current status of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thank you for joining us. >> You're welcome. >> Can you give us an update where we're at with the COVID-19 pandemic and what the different patterns are that we can see around the world. >> I think we can probably think about the patterns in kind of four different types. We've got some of the early affected populations, who through a variety of different measures have achieved high levels of control. So that would apply certainly to Mainland China, to South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore. And then I think if we kind of move across to Europe, then we've got kind of a relatively large population that are undergoing stringent interventions, what some people are calling lockdown. And for most of the kind of European region, there is some initial evidence the lockdown is taking effect. Some countries in Europe obviously were seeded earlier and have larger academics like Italy and Spain. And then also there's Germany's is perhaps a little bit of an outlier in Europe, that it seems to be having a much smaller growth at the moment. And then kind of over to the US where there is you know it's a huge population there with very different levels of intervention across the whole country, so it's a mixed picture there. And then and then finally the lower middle income countries, which are on average have been seeded a little bit later and for which we don't have quite as good data, there's mounting evidence of epidemics growing there. And that's obviously an area of real concern and there's a lot of effort now going into understanding what's happening there and how it may be different with other examples. >> So you mentioned countries have implemented several measures, are lockdown measures working? >> So the best evidence that we have and we use the term lockdown to describe stringent social distancing, which is that people are trying to apply in lots of different places. But it's being complied with at very different levels we would imagine. So we can probably speak most about the the UK and especially around London. The evidence is from the hospital data that it is beginning to work, that there is a reduction in the rate at which people are going into hospitals. So there is clear evidence from the actual infection data that it may be working. And then we have lots of other kind of proxy data about how people are moving and how they're behaving, that also suggests that it is working. >> What will exiting this social distancing lockdown look like? >> I don't think it's going to look the same everywhere, and if we look around the countries that populations are achieving good control at the moment there are different mixtures of interventions in place. So I think it's probably important that we start to think about exiting lockdown that's not quite as simple as one policy takes over from lockdown. So it will be a combination of things. I am sure that the evidence suggests countries that are able to do very high levels of testing have many more options to allow people greater social flexibility. I'm sure that maintaining the very best infection control in hospitals is going to be a key part of this. And then there will be some really interesting and innovative solutions that will play a part. For example, contact tracing based on a mobile phone app is something that's that's being looked at. So I think there's going to be some really innovative solutions, but I don't think it will be one size fits all for even kind of one country or across large areas. >> And will there be different groups that will exit lockdown at different times? >> I think that's possible but very difficult. So one of the things that has been talked about is a possibility of an immunity passport, where people can demonstrate they've got antibodies because a significant number of people in especially in some countries have now been infected. But there's a bit of a really important science to do. There's two really kind of difficult aspects of that, first is accurately detecting the antibodies because having a quick safe test that's also acurate is not straightforward, it's very difficult. And then the other thing is interpreting the level of antibodies not everybody gets exactly the same response. So we need to understand what a particular level of antibodies means in terms of your protection going forward. So it's a it's a really important and exciting idea, and I'm sure it will be part of the exit strategies that are going to be pursued. But there is some important fundamental science to do on that first. >> And is there any insight into when these exit strategies will be starting to be put in place? >> I think that's going to vary a lot country by country. And I think the timing of them is a really difficult decision. And it's not driven just by the epidemiology, not that any aspect of this is driven solely by the epidemiology. But especially the timing, the elected officials in these different countries have to weigh up based on economic data, social data, and all the other aspects of people having reduced social contacts. They have to weigh up when to try these more innovative and more focused strategies. >> Is there a possibility that after exiting the current social distancing measures we might have to go back into lockdown at some point in the future? >> So as I mentioned before the preliminary evidence is that the stringent social distancing, lockdown is working, it's slowing the epidemic and it may create a peak. So by having this really strong social distancing we're going to have a peak and hopefully things will go down. We're going to try and come up with less crude, you know more focused interventions that will allow us to continue to have incidents go down, to continue to have fewer numbers of cases, but not be subject to this lockdown. We can't know for sure how they will work. So if at some point in the future cases start to rise again when the lockdown is off, and other measures are perhaps not working as well as we would have hoped. Then as countries we'll have to decide on the costs and benefits. Right now my belief is it's likely we would choose to try lockdowns again because we wouldn't want to accept a large second wave if we manage to achieve a peak with these interventions for a first wave. That's the way I feel right now. But again it's a difficult decision and these things are probably three four five weeks away the soonest. If we've learned nothing else through this pandemic we know that the situation and our understanding can change very rapidly. >> Thank you so much for sharing your insights and your time. I appreciate it. >> You're welcome. [MUSIC]