[MUSIC] Hello, my name is Rob de Wijk. I'm a professor of International Relations and Security. This lecture is about power politics in a multi-power world. There is little scholarly disagreement about the fact that since the end of the Cold War, a multipolar world has slowly been re-emerging. Such a system is less stable than a unipolar or bipolar one. A distinction that is often made is that between the West and the rest. The Indian-American journalist and author Fareed Zakaria argued that due to the rise of the West, you are now seeing the emergence of a post-American world. In this world, the United States and Europe compete with China and other emergent powers over economic interests. Which will spark new political and security issues. This has led to a new debate on geo-economics. With a secure access to resources and energy, as dominant drivers of modern geo-politics, countries around the globe no longer focus solely on territorial defense. Instead, they also now consider the defense of vital economic interests. Indeed, both industrialized and industrializing nations demand unrestricted access to resources, particularly energy supplies, critical materials and food. This is a prerequisite for continued economic growth and social political stability. This geo-economics explains why major in state conflicts can do erupt over economic issues, and will continue to do so. Certain manifestations of this resource struggle are already visible. On September the 7th, 2010, for instance, a Chinese trawler collided with a Japanese Coast Guard patrol vessel near the uninhabited but resource rich [FOREIGN] islands. The incidents, and the events detention of the Chinese captain that were major diplomatic fall out between the two nations. Eventually, we landed but only after China reportedly had already halted critical exports of rare earth minerals to its rival. A similar incident took place in April 2012 between China and the Philippines over the disputed Scarborough Shoal which China claims is an integral part of its territory. When a Philippine warship sought to apprehend eight Chinese fishing vessels for illegal fishing, it found the site blocked by two Chinese surveillance vessels. As the standoff continued, China warned its population against travel to the Philippines and raised trade barriers on imported pineapples and bananas. Since then, China has maintained a military presence in the Shoal, and implemented new legislation barring non-Chinese vessels from entering without authorization. The rise in increased regional assertiveness of China has triggered a debate in the United States on the pivotal issue of rebalancing and retrenchment. US policymakers are reducing the country's strategical maintenance in response to a decline in its relative power and defense budget. As a result, Washington's foreign policy doctrines have been marked by increased retrenchment. Deep cuts in his military spending, and the shifting of more of the United States global defense burdens onto its allies. Indirectly, America's rebalancing to Asia also points at the increased danger of major power conflict. US fears that a rival China and its mounting anti-access, and area denial capabilities, could pose a threat to its naval forces. In particular, it believes new Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles, such as the F-21 D, which could sink an aircraft carrier with a single hit, are now game changers. In response US military presented the AirSea battle concept which calls for strengthening of bases in the pacific and dispersal of forces and the ability to conduct long ranges operations. In addition in response to Chinese assertions that the south China sea, was a core interest of Chinese sovereignty. The Obama administration stated in 2010 that freedom of Maritime navigation in a region is a US national interest. Although this may seem far fetch to some incidence in the Indian ocean and the South China sea would really affect not just global security but also our security. Major power conflict would trade routes, sea lines of communication and access to trade markets, and resources at risk. Both developed and emerging countries are extremely vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of resources. A 2010 report by the European Commission identified 14 critical minerals. The report observes that many emerging economies are pursuing industrial development strategies by means of trade. Taxation and investment, instruments aimed at preserving their resource base for their exclusive use. In some cases, the situation is further compounded by a high level of concentration of the production in a few countries, as you can see on this map. There's many reserves of critical materials can only be found in a limited number of countries, their specification of supply is not an option. If a country, for whatever reason, stops the exports of raw materials or energy, Europe may have no other option but attempt to force it's excess to these commodities. In extreme cases this clearly could lead to armed conflict. Moreover, as we know now, power politics takes place in Europe as well. In early 2014, Russia took advantage of perceived economic military, and consequently political weakness of Europe, to carry out the annexation, of the Crimea. We should understand here that for Russia, power politics is not about geo-economics, but about our ideas of restoring, past greatness and undoing elaboration of history. This is the end of show week union. This form of power politics is fueled by a feeling of humiliation by the west. This is about power politics as well. Russia accuses the West about taking advantage of Russia's weakness after the collapse of the Soviet Union. When Russia was unable to stop German reunification, NATO's enlargement, the 1999 Kosovo War, or the EU's Eastern Partnership. The way Europe and America responded demonstrated that President Putin's assessment of a possible reaction of the West was right. Apart from imposing largely symbolic sanctions, Europe could do little to stop Russia's annexation of the Crimea. Interestingly, in Asia America's response was very different when China established an air and defense zone. In the East China Sea extending over the disputed islands. This zone requires for an aircraft to report to the Chinese authorities before entering airspace. One day after its establishment US responded by sending a pair of B52 bombers on patrol in Tunisia. A similar military show of force did not take place during the Russian annexation of the Crimea. So what are the consequences of power politics? In the first place, it could weaken the legitimacy or value of international treaties, an agreement. NATO's intervention in Kosovo in 1999 was not supported by a UN resolution. Consequently, humanitarian operations was considered illegal by Russia and China. On the other hand, by occupying the Crimea Russia, herself violated UN charter. The OSE charter for European security. The Budapest Agreement and all NATO-Russia agreements. In March 2014, a large majority of countries in the United Nations General Assembly dismissed the annexation as illegal. Even as Russia sought to rally world support for the idea of regional self-determination. Remarkably, even China, Russia's long time ally abstained from supporting its position in the UN. By violating the international rule of law, major powers will weaken global institutions such as United Nations as well. Another consequence is that Europe, which abandoned traditional power politics after the end of the Second World War, it's now confronted with a world which had believed belonged to the past. America's to the east, a and a concept of leading from behind, all indicate that Europe must be able to reassert and defend its vital interest, if necessary without American support. In the past few years, before the Crimea, most European governments focused on the sovereign debt crisis, which had plunked it into institutional and political crisis. And they neglected the reemergence of power politics. However, Russia's seizure of the Crimea has made clear that Europeans have no answer when confronted with the power politics of major powers in its own neighborhood. Europe has come to suspect that, if it had been military shown and politically united, President Putin might not have risked this confrontation of the Crimea, this is what power politics are all about. So in sum, a multiple world is emerging, this has led to a new debate on geo-economics and power politics by definition and multiple world is less stable than the world we know. In next video, we all look at the role of China in global affairs.
