Repasando el Simulador de Políticas Económicas

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From the course by IE Business School

Analizando las Políticas Económicas

146 оценки

IE Business School

Analizando las Políticas Económicas

146 оценки

Este curso utiliza un enfoque no técnico para analizar la forma en la que los gobiernos utilizan políticas económicas para influenciar la economía de sus países. Al finalizar el curso el participante hablará con propiedad sobre temas tan importantes como la deuda y el déficit de los países, podrá examinar las políticas fiscales y monetarias así como las reformas estructurales de los países. Estos conceptos le ofrecerán los conocimientos necesarios para estar informados y poder crear su propio criterio respecto a los debates económicos de la actualidad: estímulos fiscales vs. austeridad, las virtudes de las innovaciones de los bancos centrales en política monetaria, cuándo se necesitan altas tasas de interés y el camino hacia el crecimiento para muchas de las economías más avanzadas.

From the lesson

Formulación de Políticas tras la Crisis Financiera

¡Ya se encuentra en el último módulo de nuestro curso “Analizando la política económica”! Tras haber visto la teoría que hay detrás de la formulación de políticas económicas, dedicaremos este último módulo a ver qué hacen los formuladores de políticas en los países desarrollados. Discutiremos si las tasas de interés han sido apropiadas para un grupo de países y cuáles son las consecuencias en caso de que no sean apropiadas. Discutiremos también la expansión cuantitativa, principal política monetaria “no convencional”, y trataremos de anticipar algunas de sus consecuencias. Daremos un vistazo a los déficits y las deudas de algunos países y utilizaremos nuestras herramientas para determinar si son un problema; analizaremos las políticas de “austeridad” que han aplicado muchos países europeos; también veremos la combinación de políticas fiscales, monetarias y estructurales que se están utilizando en Japón, conocidas como “Abenomics”. También consideraremos los peligros de la búsqueda agresiva de crecimiento que tienen los formuladores de las políticas económicas, sobretodo en esta época donde el crecimiento se ha vuelto más escurridizo. El examen final tendrá preguntas sobre lo discutido en este módulo y en cada uno de los anteriores, así que puede utilizar los exámenes anteriores para prepararlo. ¡Mucho éxito para completar el curso! Ha sido un placer contar con su participación en este curso. Saludos cordiales.

Resumen del Curso4:04

Repasando el Simulador de Políticas Económicas9:04

Meet the Instructors

Gayle Allard
Professor
Economics

[MUSIC]

Last week you worked with the economic policy simulator as sort of an interactive

exercise that allowed you to simulate the

effect of different economic policies on an economy.

And the only ones you could work with were the three.

You could work with fiscal policy.

Which showed itself in taxes and social spending.

You were able to work with monetary policy.

Because you had the interest rates you could manipulate.

Remember that central bank's actually manipulating the money supply.

But it shows itself in interest rates.

And then you had an option for structural reform.

So, I'd like to spend just a few minutes talking about this country.

Thinking about the data, and helping you to walk through it.

And I hope you thought about some of these things, as you

read the case and you thought about the date of this country.

And tried to prescribe what it really needed.

Now if we look at the figures for, for

this country, for Country 1 that you were working with.

The first thing we need to ask ourselves is, is it an inflationary gap,

or a recessionary gap, because we can't

prescribe for a country until we've diagnosed.

And so if you read the case through carefully.

You'll find that I mentioned that the country starts to run into inflation, when

it passes a growth rate of three and a half percent in real terms.

So if we look at the data here, we can

see the country starts out in year one in inflationary gap.

And then it drops into a recessionary gap that lasts years two, three and four.

Therefore, if you're making policy for this country,

you need to think about closing that recessionary gap.

You want to go back up to a potential growth rate of around

three and a half percent, and so you're going to need some expansive policies.

That doesn't mean, however, that all policies need to be expansive.

Now, if you went in there and you put expansive fiscal and expansive monitoring,

you will have seen that inflation accelerates

and even a GDP growth is quite strong.

And you also run into fiscal deficit problems.

And this country, if we look at it,

already has a problem with deficit and debt.

Look at the public debt figures as a percent of GDP.

They're, they don't look so bad right now compared

to a lot of countries in the financial crisis.

But when you're 60% and remember a lot of this data is foreign.

So this countries laboring under a debt constraint.

So I hope you considered when you were making the policy

for this country, that you don't want deficits completely out of control.

In fact it would have been a good idea to try and bring that debt down, by the

end of year six, and that's a very hard thing to do if you tried to do it.

Another thing you might want to think about looking

at this country is that, if we look for what

inflation is doing and what unemployment are doing and we

think about what would be normal across a business cycle.

Remember the economy is in a recessionary gap, and yet, look at inflation.

It accelerates and it actually reaches almost 15% in year four.

So something odd is going on in this country.

Remember we talked about, how inflation and unemployment usually move

in opposite directions if aggregate demand is driving the economy.

But here we see them moving in the same direction.

They're both going up together.

So, there's a very good chance an, and, you know, this isn't very technical.

This is just eyeballing the data.

There's a very good chance that something's happening

on the aggregate supply side of the economy.

That maybe the aggregate supply curve has shifted inward to the left,

which as you know, and you can draw it now if you'd like.

Which as you know gives us equilibrium where inflation

is higher and GDP is lower and unemployment is higher.

Looks like what could be happening to that country in years three and four.

So, I hope that all of you thought about this aspect of

the countries reality, of its macroeconomic

reality, and made use of deregulation.

Because remember deregulation in the good sense right?

We don't want to just deregulate but changing

some of those laws in the country which we

know are obstacles to doing business reasonably, would move

the arrow at supply curve outward to the right.

Okay.

If you were able to do that then you would have seen in

your results, that the country got some

growth with declining inflation and declining unemployment.

So if you experimented with the

deregulation option, which is a supply side

option, you could see the effect of supply side measures on an economy.

Another thing to think about in this country is the interest rate.

Now if you look at the figures for Country 1, you

see the interest rate is extremely high and you wonder why.

And probably the answer that you came up with

was there's a lot of inflation in this country,

so we need to control that inflation with a

restrictive monetary policy, even though we're in a recessionary gap.

And that's reasonable.

You can use one tool, you can use

your monetary policy to try to control the inflation.

Maybe use your fiscal policy to try to get back up to equilibrium.

It's interesting to look at this monetary policy and think of it

in light of some of the things we said in earlier sessions.

For example, did any of you take the monetary policy,

interest rate, excuse me, and subtract from it the inflation rate?

If you did that.

If you took the interest rate given in the case.

Subtracted from it the inflation rate.

You will see that real interest rates are very, very high in this country.

And they stay almost the same all the way through.

They drop a little bit in year four.

So obviously authorities are following a policy that's very restrictive because,

that real interest rate is well above the GDP growth rate.

And this is something we want to ask ourselves about.

There's a good chance in this country actually that

interest rates are being used to stabilize the currency.

And possibly the authorities felt like they had to keep

those interest rates high, so the currency wouldn't fall in value.

What would happen if the currency fell in value?

Well, we've seen in earlier sessions that

one thing that happens is that inflation accelerates.

You'd have a worse inflation problem.

Another thing that would happen is that you would owe more foreign debt.

We know a lot of this country's debt is foreign.

If the currency falls in value, then the value of that foreign currency

debt goes up in terms of your local currency and you owe more.

So, probably, authorities are using this interest

rate to try to stabilize the currency.

And that would explain for us why it's way too high for the economy.

And if we think of the in, of the exchange

rate, we get an explanation for that very strange year four.

Where you see inflation almost doubles in one year

while the economy is in its deepest recessionary gap yet.

How could that be?

Well, one possible explanation is that maybe in year four the

currency dropped in value, and this would cause imported inflation to happen.

So the country's paying a lot more for petroleum

and for capital goods and other things that it's importing.

And so this would help us to understand the inflation in year four.

Now, you can do more reading about this, and

just to let you know what country this is so

that you can go back to the source and find

out what was happening in those years, this is Brazil.

It's in the early 2000s, and it's the time right after Lula came into office.

And he's struggling with what looks like

it's intractable a situation of a country with

high debt, high inflation, slow growth and they just really couldn't get out of it.

And what we see is that really Brazil's future

was changed in the years shortly after this case.

Because they did use, they used a more expansive monetary policy.

And a relatively restrictive fiscal,

not very restrictive, but relatively restrictive.

So that expanding the economy they allowed the currency to fall.

And they did some structural reform, which

moved aggregate supply in the right direction.

Also, they were lucky.

The dollar fell which made their debt problem less, less of a problem.

And, they discovered some natural resources and there was

a client very hungry for them who was China.

So this pulled on the resilient economy and put it back into a growth cycle.

But anyway I hope that you as you did this case

that you thought through some of the issues we've been talking about.

And I'd encourage you then to take a further look

at Brazil now, and see it, how it came out

of this dilemma, which required a difficult juggling act by

authorities to try to solve the problems of the economy.

[MUSIC]

[BLANK_AUDIO]

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