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达到临界规模 Achieving Critical Mass

Course video 38 of 61

我们将以模块4中的知识为基础，调查网络市场的竞争情况、普及率和临界规模的优势。接下来，我们将学习为何达到临界规模点至关重要。我们还会讨论公司用以提高潜在消费者关注并减少其感知风险的方法。

高阶竞争策略（中文版）

Мюнхенский университет Людвига-Максимилиана (LMU)

与之前的“竞争策略”(https://www.coursera.org/learn/competitivestrategyzh)相比，“高阶竞争策略”课程将在讲解新课题和新模块的同时，结合更多实际案例并提供更多与学生互动交流的机会。在“高阶竞争策略”课程中，我们将研究企业如何通过增加转换成本和推进战略客户锁定来建立和维护客户群。探索企业如何通过寻求适当的价格歧视和产品差异化策略来提高收益。我们将举例介绍在欧盟竞争政策和美国反垄断政策前提下可接受的行为，并且找到企业通过战略性利用网络效应和规模经济来增加回报的方法。我们会进一步强化新学的有关网络效应的知识，并讨论专门为网络市场定制的策略。我们还会分析兼并和收购的运作方式，此外，帮助您思考有助于公司有机增长的其他策略。 This is a Chinese version of Advanced Competitive Strategy. You can find the original course in English from our course catalog. 【此版本是Coursera首次尝试推出的中文翻译版。课程视频为英文原版附中文字幕，课程页面和测验已译成中文，帮助中心提供中文支持。此版本仍在测试中，欢迎批评指正。】

Просмотреть программу курса

Преподаватели

Tobias Kretschmer
Professor

Текст видео

In this module we're going to take a look at competition

in network markets, adoption rates, and the advantage of critical mass.

So how do we compete in network markets?

Well, first of all you need to make sure you achieve critical mass.

Of course, expectations matter.

So, if I expect lots of other people to adopt the

same technology, I'm going to be more inclined to adopt it.

Early adopters, therefore, will jumpstart the process.

It's going to be much more important to

get early adopters hooked on to your network.

Intermediate adopters are typically the ones that are fairly difficult to attract.

So, once you've attracted them, the technology is going to take off.

If you don't manage to take

these early adopters, then a bandwagon may not even get off the ground.

Positive externalities of network size will not increase forever.

So, if we think about the adoption of new technologies, as I said, the

adoption of a technology will depend on

the observed and on the expected network size.

So, this is going to mean that initially just a

very few people are going to adopt and this is

going to entice only a few others to adopt as

well, which makes us basically sit in a low-adoption equilibrium.

Few people will adopt because people expect not

very many people to go for the new technology.

On the other hand, if you get past a threshold value,

if you get past this critical mass, then a snowballing effect can

occur, because once you've got enough enough consumers then even more consumers

are going to find it attractive to go for the new technology.

So as an example, let's take the

fax machine, which was available since the 1960s.

In fact, as a technology, it's been around since the 1800s.

But market penetration only began in the mid-1980s.

So, looking at this graph here up to the 1980s, penetration, market

diffusion, was very very slow and then it all of a sudden started taking off.

So, critical mass here was clearly reached in 1985-86

and the market took on and went into a high-adoption equilibrium.

So, what is critical mass and why do we care?

Why is it important?

Well, critical mass is the combination of

having a large enough installed base, having sufficiently

strong network effects, and having a price

that's low enough so that diffusion becomes self-sustaining.

And this is important, because self-sustaining means that

we don't have to improve the technology, we

don't have to lower the price and we

don't have to change anything with the technology.

More adopters are basically coming into the network, are joining

the network because more and more people are joining, right?

So, it becomes a self-sustaining, it becomes a self-reinforcing

process that leads to the success of the firm.

Now, how do these three things, installed

base, network effects and price hang together?

Well, lower price, a higher installed base and higher

network effects make it easier to reach critical mass.

In other words, you can get away with a higher price if

the installed base is pretty high and if network effects are very strong.

Why is it important?

Why do we care about this?

Well, empirically critical mass occurs in periods of rapid and almost discontinuous

diffusion, meaning that all of a sudden the market takes off

all of a sudden, diffusion really takes off in a massive way.

And managers are going to be interested in that

because critical mass means that diffusion becomes self-perpetuating.

In other words, my marketing efforts are going to have huge payback,

they're going to have huge returns to my investment because there's going to

be this element that underlies the

whole diffusion process, which is self-sustaining.

Critical mass also marks the switch between

a low-adoption equilibrium and a high-adoption equilibrium.

In other words, once you reach critical mass you switch from

a low-adoption equilibrium, where expectations are low and that's why not

many people will adopt, to a high-adoption equilibrium, where people expect

the technology's success to be successful and that also makes it successful.

So, this all sounds great in theory.

What is difficult about this?

Well, critical mass points can be defined in theory

but it's much more difficult to define them in practice.

And secondly, how do we identify prospectively?

So, can we predict before we launch a technology,

where the critical mass point is going to lie?

So, of course the useful thing here is

to have enough experience, maybe in other countries, maybe with

previous technologies, to be able to predict

the critical mass point for a new technology.

So, as one example if you look at mobile telephony we have looked

at the diffusion of digital mobile telephony, second

generation mobile telephony, in 36 countries across the globe.

And what we find here is that basically in the range between 0.31 and

0.37 cent per minute, so that was the average price per minute,

we would have critical mass phenomena.

And what we see here from this graph is that installed base can only substitute

for the right price, to some extent, but

in itself it's not sufficient to boost diffusion.

So, let's just have a look at an in-video

quiz and then we'll move on to the next module.

See you.

Okay, now we know that it's beneficial, if not essential, to achieve critical mass.

Well, what can you do to gain the full favor of your consumers?

Find out in the next video.

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